By Charlie Kiggs

Ok, here I am back to my regular date analyzing each GMA Edition and, what’s worst, making my always risky predictions.

So, yes, past Season was the ‘American Tabloid’ Edition and now is the ‘Kavalier & Clay’ Edition. Two Seasons in a row breaking all the records about number of nominations. ‘American Tabloid’ surprised us all reaching the amazing number of 9 nominations (pulverizing the previous record of 7). But now 9 looks as an easy to reach mark looking at the spectacular 11 nominations reached by Spielberg’s movie.

Are they deserved or not? Well, ‘Kavalier & Clay’ looks as a movie production specifically conceived to win awards: perfect production design, epic perspective, bigger-than-life story, war and romance and drama all together, Spielberg… The kind of movie that Hollywood loves to reward. So, yes, I can understand why GMA’s voters have supported the movie almost unanimously. On the other side, this huge success of ‘Kavalier & Clay’ has kept away from the nominations list movies that should have deserved a higher recognition. I have mixed feelings about these 11 nominations. As I always say, there’s no room for everyone and finally every selection becomes unfair with ones or others.

Anyway, let’s look at what we are dealing with…

THE HIGHLIGHTS

As it happened past Season with ‘American Tabloid’, the rival of ‘Kavalier & Clay’ are not the other movies nominees. The real rival is ‘Carousel’, the movie that became back in Season 4 the most awarded movie ever in GMA’s History with 5 statues. None CMP’s production since then has been able to beat that record. Past Edition, ‘American Tabloid’ had a big chance with 9 nominations but it ended up with only 4 wins. Will this be the time? What we all will be looking at during the Gala will be if, nine Seasons later, the record hold by ‘Carousel’ for so long is finally beaten or not.

It does not happen very often to see a fourth installment of a saga fighting for a Best Picture or Best Director award. These nominations confirm the successful return of ‘Uncommon Valour’ to CMP. Eleven Seasons after the first ‘Uncommon Valour’ movie won both categories, Jack Hammer’s saga is back to the top.

Some stars are bigger in CMP than out of it. That’s the case for Joseph Gordon-Levitt and Jena Malone. Both have won a best acting GMA and became CMP’s main stars in a sudden way. ‘Lyra’ for Jena and ‘Weigh Anchor’ for Joseph were two more than profitable experiences in terms of popularity in CMP’s world. Now, the Josh Collins’ bets have grown up as stars and both – probably the two stars that have had a most meteoric career in CMP - are back to the GMA.

This edition, it will be Cameron Diaz who will have a double chance to win in different acting categories by herself (besides Best Starring Couple). The sexy Cameron will fight for Best Actress and Best Villain. Sometimes, that means a bigger chance to be awarded. Other times, it has the risk of votes splitting and leaving you out of the winners’ sheet. Talents like Tom Hanks with ‘American Tabloid’ or Bill Murray with ‘Life and Facts of a Dirty Mind’ have been in the same situation before (and they finally went home with at least one statue).

Also, not very frequently two stars fight for the same award with the same movie. James Franco and Philip Seymour Hoffman compete for Best Supporting Actor both for their work in ‘Kavalier & Clay’. That’s not new at the GMA. I remember now John Malkovich and Robert De Niro being both nominated at the same category for ‘The Toymaker’ and also Kate Winslet and Jodie Foster sharing a Best Supporting Actress nod for ‘Things I Forgot To Tell You’.

It is curious that a regular in CMP like Steven Spielberg has never been nominated before. As it happened to him with the Oscars, it has taken him too long to be recognized.

And yes, Will Ferrell is back… He already won the Best Starring Couple award for ‘The Miracle Men’ with Paul Giamatti. Now, Ferrell could win his second GMA. Can you believe it? That would turn him into one of the most prestigious actors in CMP’s world!

THE IGNORED

As it usually happens in CMP’s world, box office success and awards nominations have gone again their own separate way. The most successful movies of the Season have been ignored at the GMA. ‘Silver Sable and the Genesis Coalition’, ‘To Catch A Thief’, ‘Dragonlace’, ‘Monkey Island’ and ‘Game Boy 3’ have been left empty handed. Even the box office top 1 of the Season, ‘The Dark Tower: Wolves Of The Calla’, only gets one nomination at a minor category like Best Production Design. And this is specially unfair: when will the GMA recognize all the cinematic talent, creativity and quality in Kubrick’s saga?

Particularly painful is the absence in the list of what I consider one of the most beautiful, well made and brilliant movies of the Season: Danny Boyle’s ‘The Orphan Train’. I was convinced that this movie would be one of the final contenders for the big awards. Instead of that, it hasn’t picked up a single nomination. In my opinion, that’s one of the biggest unfairness of this Edition.

The second big unfairness is ignoring Tarantino for Best Director. I have written so many times that Tarantino may be a too overvalued moviemaker. But ‘Legends Of The West’ is a powerful and talented directing work. The movie has got 5 nominations, including Best Picture. But he has been forgotten at the Best Director category. I really think his name should be there.

Not only big productions have been ignored. A couple of minor productions I particularly liked so much have only got a single nomination. ‘The Bus’, ‘The Lovers Stages’ and ‘Get Down’ could have deservedly been more recognized by voters. The splendid work of the whole cast in ‘The Lovers Stages’ or Zack Braff’s work in ‘The Bus’ or Terrence Howard and Anthony Mackie in ‘Get Down’ were not supported by voters. As I said above, ‘Kavalier & Clay’ did not left room for the rest…

And other talents that deserved to be remembered at the list but weren’t would be Angelina Jolie (‘To Catch A Thief’), Ian McShane (‘Legends Of The West’), Alan Arkin (‘The Lovers Stages’), Bill Murray (‘The Bus’) or David Strathairn (‘Nude!’)…

THE RETURNS

Again, many talents have been there before…

JOHN GOODMAN: This is the third nomination for Goodman with only seven movies made for CMP. Together with Tim Roth, he was nominated for Best Starring Couple in Season 2 with ‘Sam & Twitch’. And then he surprisingly won the Best Supporting Actor award in Season 4 with ‘Warland’.

BEN STILLER: It has taken him twelve Seasons to be back to the GMA. It was the first GMA Edition when he was nominated for Best Starring Couple pairing up with Steve Martin in the political satire ‘The Perfect Candidate’.

WILL FERRELL: It’s not easy to win more than one GMA. Ferrell can get into that selected club after having win his first GMA as Best Starring Couple together with Paul Giamatti for ‘The Miracle Men’.

JENA MALONE: Everybody identifies her as Lyra, the teen lesbian that meant for her the Best Actress GMA back in Season 7 in her CMP’s debut. This Edition, she can bring two more statues home as Best Starring Couple and Best Supporting Actress for ‘Nude!’.

EMILE HIRSH: His association with Joey Stark is being very profitable for Emile. The young actor that made his debut in CMP with the terrible ‘Blood Beach’ was nominated past Season with Michelle Pfeiffer for Best Starring Couple for ‘The Impossible Dream’. This time, he has two chances to finally win a statue: Best Starring Couple and Best Actor.

PHILIP SEYMOUR HOFFMAN: He already knows how winning tastes. Johnny Depp and him won the Best Starring Couple award in Season 9 with ‘Sherlock Holmes’. Before that, he was nominated for Best Villain in Season 8 for ‘Netchasers’.

EDWARD NORTON: A veteran at the Golden Moon Awards. Fourth time around for him. The three previous ones were: Best Villain Nominee in Season 2 for ‘Checkmate’, Best Starring Couple Nominee (with Tea Leoni) and Best Actor Winner in Season 5 for ‘No Evil’.

JOSEPH GORDON-LEVITT: Like Jena Malone, he had a most impressive debut in CMP. He won the Best Actor award in Season 10 with his first CMP’s movie, ‘Weigh Anchor’.

RIDLEY SCOTT: Another regular at the GMA. Winner of two GMA: Best Director and Best Picture (as producer) for the first ‘Uncommon Valour’ movie. And nominated for Best Director in Season 10 (‘The Gunpowder Plot’) and Season 11 (‘Gaspipe’). No other director has such a background at the GMA like him.

And the screenwriters…

JAMES BRADLEY: The most awarded screenwriter at the GMA (4 wins and another 5 nominations for Best Screenplay) will live a new experience this time. He has been nominated for the first time for Best Director thanks to ‘Nude!’. Matt Kubrick and Josh Collins are other CMP’s screenwriters that have been nominated for Best Director too.

DAWSON EDWARDS: The prestige of Dawson Edwards keeps rising in CMP with this second nomination for Best Screenplay due to the brilliant remake of ‘Ms. Jordon’. His first nomination was back in Season 10 for the also very brilliant ‘Fallen Kings’.

MATT KUBRICK: Matt Kubrick is the most active writer in CMP’s history: he is the author of 79 screenplays! But usually he does not write the kind of movies that win awards so we don’t see him too often at the GMA. So, after 79 movies, he’s still waiting for his first win at the GMA. His previous nominations are: Best Director (Season 2, ‘Wild Cards’), Best Screenplay (Season 3, ‘Home’), Best Screenplay (Season 11, ‘Suspicions and Dishonors’) and Best Director (Season 12, ‘Teenage Wasteland’).

JOEY STARK: Together with Kubrick, he is also the most veteran screenwriter in CMP and still he is waiting for his first win, after 47 screenplays… at least by himself. He won the Best Screenplay award back in Season 8 for ‘The Funeral Drum’, a story co-written with James Bradley. His previous nominations for Best Screenplay are: ‘The Heirs’, ‘The Crusades’ and ‘Warland’.

THE PREDICTIONS

And here comes the hard part of all this. The Golden Moon Awards always hide some surprises. It is pretty traditional that the most nominated movie does not turn into the most awarded one – something almost impossible this time, I think – and voters often change their decision from nomination phase to winners phase.

Anyway, as usual, remember that these predictions are written right after the nominees have been announced and they are not a reliable hint of what may finally happen at the end!

VILLAIN

CAMERON DIAZ
In favor: She created a great femme fatale, at the same level than icons like Sharon Stone in ‘Basic Instinct’.
Against: It’s hard to visualize the sweet and sexy Cameron as a villain.
All in All: Every time an actress is nominee at this category, I predict she will be the first woman to win the Best Villain award… and then I’m always wrong.

JOHN GOODMAN
In favor: Goodman has always been supported by GMA’s voters.
Against: Hard to visualize him as a villain too?
All in All: Big chances.

TOM WILKINSON
In favor: Wilkinson has this ‘stamp’ of prestigious actor that helps so much to win awards.
Against: Less popular than Cameron and Goodman.
All in All: Big chances too, so this is a category where any of the three nominees can easily win.

STARRING COUPLE

BEN STILLER & WILL FERRELL
In favor: Box office success or not, they made a highly hilarious couple.
Against: I have the intuition that voters won’t resist the sweet appeal of Ellen and Jena.
All in All: It would be ironic to see Ferrell winning his second GMA although everybody considers him a goofy repetitive actor.

ELLEN PAGE & JENA MALONE
In favor: Is there anybody out there that does not love both?
Against: A certain lack of strength as ‘starring couple’ in the movie. I mean, Ellen was the lead star and Jena just played a supporting role.
All in All: They are going to win. Just because we all love them.

EMILE HIRSH & JAMIE BELL
In favor: They both made a splendid acting work in the movie and made very much believable their life-lasting friendship.
Against: I have the feeling this is not the category for ‘Kavalier & Clay’
All in All: It will all depend if voters decide to support strongly ‘Kavalier & Clay’ in all its nominations or will act selectively in that support.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

EMMY ROSUM
In favor: It is impossible not to fall in love with her when watching ‘Kavalier & Clay’
Against: Her work was more a lead role than a supporting role and that can damage her chances in this category
All in All: We love her… but will we love her more than Jena?

JENA MALONE
In favor: She showed a strong screen presence in the movie. And she has Josh Collins’ vote for sure!
Against: Isn’t her character just the stereotype of ‘the funny eccentric friend of the lead character’?
All in All: She is a CMP’s favorite and that will multiply her chances.

VANESSA REDGRAVE
In favor: Hey, it’s Vanessa Redgrave. Besides her, Emmy and Jena just look as a couple of amateur actresses.
Against: We love Emmy. We love Jena. Age is cruel, Vanessa.
All in All: She should but she won’t win.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

JAMES FRANCO
In favor: He perfectly created his character of a gay dandy full of glamour.
Against: Not much. He is a rising star and an award would help a lot his career.
All in All: 50%

PHILIP SEYMOUR HOFFMAN
In favor: He perfectly created his character of a greedy and ambitious editor with a heart hiding inside.
Against: Maybe Franco’s character leaves a stronger impression in moviegoers’ memory than his.
All in All: 50%

ROBERT PATTINSON
In favor: Not much. But he surprisingly made it at this final trio so who knows?
Against: The ‘Twilight’ saga does not benefit him to be considered a prestigious actor.
All in All: After two ‘50%’ it is obvious that there are no chances left for him.

BEST ACTRESS

CAMERON DIAZ
In favor: Same thing said above at the Best Villain category.
Against: Ellen.
All in All: She should take home at least one statue but her biggest chances might be at the Best Villain category.

ELLEN PAGE
In favor: She played one of those charming characters you still remember long after having watched the movie.
Against: Wasn’t she playing ‘Juno’ again?
All in All: It’ll be her night.

MICHELLE MONAGHAN
In favor: James Bradley created her character. And it seems like every female character created by Bradley ends up providing a nomination to the actress playing them.
Against: She is ‘only’ the lead star in a routine action thriller after all.
All in All: I didn’t even expect her at this final trio. No, it’s not her time.

BEST ACTOR

EDWARD NORTON
In favor: Mr. Norton’s huge (and deserved) prestige.
Against: Everybody feels sympathy in CMP for Emile and Joseph.
All in All: Very big chances, as any time Norton’s nominee.

EMILE HIRSH
In favor: He perfectly played a character full of many different shades, proving that he can face really big acting challenges.
Against: Is he really as big as an actor as Joey Stark considers him lately?
All in All: Two tough rivals can ruin his night.

JOSEPH GORDON-LEVITT
In favor: He has created one of those characters that enter directly in CMP’s History.
Against: Audiences and critics didn’t go crazy with ‘The Forgotten’.
All in All: His first win at the GMA was a big surprise. I have the feeling he might surprise us again this time.

BEST DIRECTOR

JAMES BRADLEY
In favor: His immense prestige as moviemaker in CMP and he is a specialist in winning awards.
Against: ‘Nude!’ was more a ‘screenwriter movie’ than a ‘director movie’.
All in All: His nomination in this category has taken me by surprise. I think he deserved to be back at the Screenplay category for the brilliant ‘Nude!’. But I just don’t see him as a Best Director winner for it.

RIDLEY SCOTT
In favor: He is a classic in CMP. It would have felt strange not having him once more here.
Against: Spielberg. And the feeling that, winner or not, Ridley will keep having chances to win this award again in the future.
All in All: Scott always deserves a nomination and / or a win.

STEVEN SPIELBERG
In favor: Scorsese, Cameron, Scott… most of the big names in Hollywood have the award except for him.
Against: The Academy Awards waited years to give him the Oscar. Will the GMA do the same?
All in All: I would be shocked if he does not win.

BEST PICTURE

LEGENDS OF THE WEST
In favor: It’s Tarantino. In fact, it’s Tarantino at his best.
Against: Some of us just don’t get crazy with everything Tarantino does.
All in All: It would be a justified win. It’s a great movie.

THE AMAZING ADVENTURES OF KAVALIER AND CLAY
In favor: As I said above, this movie seems conceived and designed to win awards.
Against: Never forget that GMA’s voters love surprises.
All in All: I am not sure if it will become the most awarded movie ever in CMP or if it will go through a bittersweet night like ‘American Tabloid’ did during the past Edition. But, whatever happens in general, I think that this one, the Big Award, will go to this one.

UNCOMMON VALOUR: ONLY THE VALIANT
In favor: The ‘Uncommon Valour’ movies are always a great epic adventure show full of enchantment. They have the delicious taste of the big Movie History classics.
Against: It feels strange to award the fourth installment of a saga. For some unexplained reason, there is a certain resistance to reward sequels, even if they are as good as this one.
All in All: The movie may deserve the award but I would not feel sure putting my money on it.